Worst Loss of the Season, Until the Next Worst Loss
- I will always think of this ballpark as Enron. No amount of rebranding can wash that stink off this place. The House that Fraud Built was an appropriate home for the biggest team-cheating scandal in two generations (barring future revelations about team complicity in the steroids era). Yeah, I know AC was part of that (the cheating, not Enron). That’s what it was, though.
- This field is in its 27th season. The Ballpark at Arlington was only used for 26 years before it was replaced with the current taxpayer-funded stadium up in Dallas-Fort Worth. I’m surprised the Astros aren’t clamoring for a two billion dollar handout from the pliant Texas legislature.
- Ranger Suarez has a seasonal age of 31, and Lance McCullers has a seasonal age of 32. I could get into the matchups in more detail, but we’re talking about the #4 guy in a rotation, and that age profile seems typical.
- Mr. Cowboy Up himself, Kevin Millar, on the color commentary along with Lou tonight. Kevin has often rubbed me the wrong way, and I’m never quite sure what he’s bringing to the analysis other than, well, color, but he enjoys broadcasting and baseball and I’ll remember him well for that 2003 season. If you’ve never seen Still We Believe: The Boston Red Sox Movie you are either a new fan or a bad one. Go find a copy. (Among other things, the DVD extras has a segment of Big Papi cooking a traditional Dominican dish at home.)
- The Astros were Oh for Six in three games in ABS challenges before Altuve is successful in the first inning. That’s as bad as you can get in three games.
- Trevor Story had no real play on that infield hit, but I really hate seeing yet another errant throw on the back end of such a play. He seems to be struggling, still, after a woeful second half defensively.
- the only problem with a neat double-play is when it comes with bases loaded and nobody out, because it scores a run and leaves a guy looming on third base. Not an auspicious start for Suarez’ Sox debut. However, a pop out ends it, and given how bad it looked, I will take that as a decent resolution.
- Four Ks in the first five Sox ABs. Ugh. Oh, look, a ground ball out to end the inning, that’s something different.
- McCullers has been with Houston for 11 seasons now, and has never pitched more than 162 innings (in 28 starts) and has only reached double digits in wins twice. (He’s only relieved three times in his career, so it’s not like a career role switch is responsible.) It seems really unusual for a ten-year veteran with one club to have such a…well, undistinguished record. He’s not bad when he pitches, but averaging 75 IP a year hardly gets one a $28 million contract, but that’s what McCullers is earning. Some organizations just fall way too deeply in love with their own scouting and don’t look at what’s actually in front of them. Injuries notwithstanding, his “healthy” year he only managed 5 2/3 IP per start, and that’s not acceptable for the back of any rotation.
- Wilyer Abreu giving it his all on a two-out pop up into the RF corner. He can’t quite get it but how many other RFers would have given up on that ball? 8 out of 10?
- and it happens again on the next batter, almost the same place! Wilyer again trying his best to catch an uncatchable ball.
- Suarez doing the proverbial settling down in the second, giving up a broken bat dink for a hit but otherwise making the Astros go quietly. That is more like it.
- Carlos Narvaez with the first Red Sox hit, from the eight hole. Up to this point the Sox have looked a bit feeble at the plate. DP ends the inning. At least we’ve gotten through the lineup once. Which means McCullers has faced the minimum.
- Jose Altuve, the pesky devil, rips yet another line hugger, but he’s held to a single…because Wilyer is out there. He’s got a chance at 3000 hits: he needs another 600 plus some change and has four years on his contract. The shortest players in history to reach 3000 are Paul Waner (5’ 8”) Eddie Collins (5’ 9”) and Rickey Henderson (5’ 10”). Now you know that. (You probably already knew Altuve is five foot six, and shrinking every time they measure him.)
- There’s no good time to give up a two run homer, but nobody out in the top of the 3rd is a pretty bad one. Yordan Alvarez is so freakin’ strong, but that was a fat, fat pitch Suarez served up. Healthy this year, he and the Astros are going to be scary.
- Roman really gets a hold of a pitch, really I think for the first time this year, but it dies a bit at the base of the warning track.
- MLB Audio is failing me tonight: I can’t get the WEEI broadcast. I’ve had more problems with MLB audio this year than I can remember having all last year. Yeah, that’s subjective but I don’t keep stats on internet streaming glitches.
- Another K, this time to Duran, and the Sox have now struck out six times through 4 innings….
- So, this bottom of the 4th coming up feels big: it’s the bottom of their lineup and Suarez starts out at 50 PC through 3. Any damage here is going to be a big deal. Our win probability is already down to…egads, 14%?! The fact I’m checking it this early sort of underscores my sense of dread.
- Narvaez calls for a challenge on a very borderline 1-1 pitch, but it’s confirmed, the Sox lose their challenge, and Carlos goes to 1 for 4 on the year. No matter, the batter cooperates by grounding to third. A 1-2-3 inning with only 13 pitches is just what Suarez needed, although one of the outs was a loud flyable to the base of the left field wall.
- Contreras whiffs to lead off the inning, and I am asking myself if the Sox had a game plan at the plate coming in. The location for McCullers has been excellent but I’m not sure the sequencing has been that devastating. His sinker is a good pitch when it’s working and I was always fooled by that at the plate myself, but then again I topped out at JV on a Division III team. I just don’t think the Sox have been getting enough looks here. McCullers is only at 52 pitches after 13 batters.
- Wilyer raps out a single and is now hitting .467 on this young season. But Durbin grounds into a double play and Cullers still has only faced the minimum through five. Is there a term for a game where the pitcher faces only 27 batters but it’s not a perfect game? A Team Perfect Game, maybe? There, I have invented another baseball term, my third of the year in four games.
- Oviedo warming in the pen to start the bottom of the fifth, as we are about to wrap around to the third time through the lineup. The 1-2-3 Astros hitters are 5 for six thus far off Suarez. Alex Cora definitely knows his business.
- No sooner do I type that out than the number nine hitter homers, and it’s not a cheapie. Sigh. That pitch was about as in the middle of the plate as a ball can get. Suarez has just been short of stuff tonight. And now we cycle back to Altuve, who walks, and I am pretty sure the next baserunner will be Suarez’ last AB. Me, I’d yank Suarez now with Alvarez up. That was a monstrous blast back in the third. Suarez is at 75 pitches. It’s March 30th. As in, not even early April.
Alvarez thereupon strikes out, once again illustrating why Alex Cora is the manager of the Red Sox and I am typing in my living room. But then out comes the hook, at least letting Suarez leave on a the high note.
And with that we will see the Red Sox debut of Johan Oviedo, an off-season acquisition I was pretty excited by. He lost out the fifth starter spot to Connelly Early but he’s going to be next in line all season, I’m fairly certain.
- Gerf. I hate wild pitches. I don’t quite understand the way Narvaez moves on balls thrown towards the first base batter’s box — I feel like he ought to be moving his body before he does, if he’s going to backhand it. Then the thing I hate even more than wild pitches, a hit batsman, and Oviedo’s debut isn’t auspicious. First and second with one out.
- Nice play by Caleb Durbin, ranging into foul territory and going the short way to get the runner at second. First and third with two outs. (The really short way, running to tag the bag at third, was not really an option; Altuve, for a 35 year old, still moves really well.)
- OK, nice pitch by Oviedo to catch Walker looking — fairly helplessly as the ball went 3 to 9 across the plate and dropped down. End of the inning, but one run across takes the win probability to…8%. Double ugh.
- McCullers is cruising at 62 pitches through 5 and has the bottom of the order. Mayer as the lefty leadoff guy is going to be pretty big here. Now is the time to get to this guy.
- Fantastic play by Correa ranging from the shortstop position to the second base side to cut off a bounder and get Marcelo by half a step. Excellent D.
- You know, speaking of Rickey Henderson (as I was a while back), I am still really saddened by his untimely passing. I always figured he’d wander into a broadcast booth at the age of 96 and starting talking in the third person about how great Rickey was, and he’d be as justified as he was in 1979 talking about how great Rickey is. OK, thank you for listening to our mid-inning message, sponsored by Nostalgia.
- Oviedo dishes up a first pitch double, and I am pretty sure he’s going to be given all the rope he needs right now, to see what he’s got working out of jams. It’s already 4-0 with only 9 Red Sox outs left to work with.
- A single gets runners to first and third, followed by an easy sac fly, and it’s 5-0. Looking very dim.
- I love Brice Matthews, who homered his last AB, showing bunt on his first pitch with one out. He thereupon jumps all over a ball and sends it deep to CF, fortunately for an out. He didn’t really fake out anybody, but I like the style.
- WOOHOO CAUGHT STEALING, Narvaez is on his game there, at least. But there’s a replay challenge…and he sure looks safe. The back-body tag missed, and the umpire was blocked. On a second look, it appears as if Mayer may have caught the runner’s…shoelaces? They take a while in NY. And he’s called out! We catch pretty much our first break this game.
It’s still taking me some getting used to having replay in the game, and I suspect I will never quite not feel odd about this sequence and the way it blocks up the game. But it beats having manager tirades three times a game over close calls.
- Player of the game voting opens up on MLB, really too damn early, but this fan participation stuff is hardly designed for the objective optimal results. He has still only faced the minimum as Trevor Story is called out trying to stretch a single into a double, although the Olde Towne Team does challenge as Altuve and Story corkscrewed around one another on the slide. I think he’s safe from the replay…and it’s overturned! First XBH for the Sox today, and unless he’s somehow doubled off, McCullers will finally be one over the minimum number of batters faced. Which would break up the Team Perfect Game (tm).
- Catcher challenge on a 1-1 count on Duran. Confirmed as a ball. Astros are 1-2 on challenges tonight, and 1 for 8 on the season. Down by five, that’s a catcher encouraging his starting pitcher to try to get through his first scoring threat of the night, now at 82 pitches. And Duran walks, giving us two runners on base for the first time all night, and a mound visit with one out and Contreras coming to the plate. He cannot hit a five run homer, however, so I suspect McCullers will be given another batter or two. (The Team Perfect Game is officially broken up.
- Oh, weird play. Nasty liner by Contreras to Correa at short, and Story has to scamper back to second, but Correa bobbles it and then just flips it to third for the force. That could have gone three possible ways: error or infield hit, out at second or third, or double play on the liner and back to second or 6-4-3 if he drops it but doesn't bobble.
- AL MVP Wilyer Abreu — you read it here first — gets a book rule double for an RBI, which is a helluva bad break for the Sox, since two runs would have scored instead of one if it hadn’t hopped over the wall. I didn’t catch an exit velocity on that, but it was hammered.
- As I expected, they leave McCullers in as Masa Yoshida pinch hits for Durbin. We’re going to see our first defensive substitution for Durbin on the year in the bottom of the of the inning.
- Catcher visit. As an ex-ump, it’s daunting how much there is to keep track of these days — mound visits, timeouts, pitch clocks — but of course a the major league level they don’t really have to keep track of anything. They have people to do that for them. My worst moment as an umpire is when I lost track of both the count AND the game score. Fortunately the league had a friendly official scorer and after a brief timeout I was able to reset.
- Wow, what a tease! Yoshida ropes one down the right field line but it’s barely fair. That would recast this game as a 5-3. Yoshida’s working McCullers here, getting up to 3-2 with McCullers at 95 pitches. And…
DAMMIT strikeout. Good job by Diaz behind the dish to catch a low tip, that is not an easy ball to field.
Well, it’s a run, but not nearly as good as three runs. Red Sox win probability down to…3%. Houston 5-1.
- IKF in at third to start the inning. Oviedo still pitching.
- Oh god, just like that the pesky Altuve strokes one out of the park to left field. Houston 6-1. That’s career homer 256 for Altuve, which is 100000000 in binary.
- Nice play by Contreras on a tough liner, diving to his right and feeding the ball to Oviedo for the out. Other than Trevor Story, the Red Sox D has been pretty good thus far this year.
- Oviedo is up over 40 pitches and I’ll be interested to see who comes out in the 8th. If it’s Oviedo it’s a pretty clear signal of how he’s going to be used, long relief when behind, keeping the arm stretched out for an emergency start. But giving up these tremendous flies (a huge double that just barely misses a homer makes it 7-1 — three of those runs are Oviedo’s) isn’t helping his case at this point in the season to move up.
- Maybe I spoke too soon. Ball four for the third baserunner of the inning with two outs brings Narvaez out to the mound at 47 pitches for Oviedo.
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- The Astros are wearing batting helmets that look like old school Atlanta Braves helmets. Only the little star outlined in the stylized A makes it distinguishable from the cursive A helmets of the 70s Atlanta team.
- McCullers out of the game in the 8th, but it’s a bit academic at this point.
- Tomorrow is Brayan Bello’s first start of the year. He was the opening day starter in 2024 and was the number two guy last year. I know the fifth spot is more a function of how Spring Training innings worked out, but still, you gotta feel for the guy. I still believe in him but the chances he’ll become a true ace seem greatly diminished.
Yeah, I’m already thinking about tomorrow in the top of the 8th. I’m faithful but I mostly want this game to be over.
- The Sox haven’t put on a real comeback rally during this three game slide. The closest was yesterday with a +10% WPA when they put on two runners late.
- Roman Anthony gets his fourth plate appearance with two outs: the Sox are still only one over the minimum number of batters. And….he strikes out.
- Story, Duran, and Contreras to open the 9th. At least they will get an extra plate appearance. They need the work; Duran at .167 is the top hitter among the trio. Story is at .158 and Conteras at .083 with a .436 OPS. Yeah yeah, sample size, yada yada yada.
- Oviedo out for the 9th. Keep working, kid.
- I’m a little worried about IKF’s range at third. Story just fielded a ball I would’ve expected the third baseman to get to.
- What a night for Altuve: hits his second home, and it wasn’t a cheapie. 4 for 4 with a walk and 4 runs scored. At this rate (does math) Altuve will get to 3000 hits by the end of this season.
Now 8-1 Houston.
- That’s three dingers Oviedo has given up. He’s now at 65 pitches with two outs in the 8th.
- Blissfully, the inning ends and we can watch the Sox go meekly in the top of the 9th. Houston 8, Red Sox 1 is the final.
Takeaways: a depressing loss, as at least in the two previous agonizing losses we only were off by a run. To call the team scuffling at this point is an understatement. Ranger Suarez' first start was disappointing, and Johan Oviedo's long relief stint didn't win him any brownie points for a future rotation spot, although he did fall on the grenade for the team and saved the rest of the pen for tomorrow. The offense was just awful: McCullers was pretty good tonight, but the club seemed to have a collectively flat night in both approach and swings and had only two batters over the minimum for a nine-inning game. At least we have Wilyer Abreu, contininuing to knock the stitches off the ball. They really, really, really, really need a win tomorrow, or the season will officially be off to an awful start.
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